PDA

View Full Version : The MARKETS - Wall of WORRY?


BADFISH II
11-20-2006, 04:08 PM
I work with a little known company (which happens to be one of the least known and absolutely the best management firm BAR NONE in my opinion) in most circles called Dimensional Fund Advisors. It's a multinational Santa Monica based firm. They have a commentary that comes out once in a while and I've asked their approval to share it with clients - you're all friends, and I think if you read a few of these things you'll learn an amazing amount of information - more than your broker (I mean "B-R-O-K-E R") knows most likely:eek3:

Here's one, if there's interest, I'll post more - it's fascinating stuff, usually quite short, and too the point.

November 20, 2006Climbing a Wall of Worry
Many investment professionals have watched the rally in stock prices over the past few months with increasing discomfort, and last week's trading did nothing to relieve the anguish: the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record high every day last week and the S&P 500 Index closed above the 1,400 level for the first time in six years on Friday, November 17. The Dow Industrials have jumped 14.9% since July 21, despite a belief by many investment professionals that a significant downturn in home sales and residential construction would send a chill over both consumer spending and stock prices. Veteran market observer Alan Abelson has been one of the skeptics, arguing in his weekly column that stocks were unlikely to advance against such a stiff headwind. Explaining his gloomy outlook for stocks, he noted in mid-September that "the impact on jobs and corporate profits has only just begun to be felt. Come the full collapse of home sales, demand, and prices, we expect the economy to be headed helter-skelter for recession."

The surge in prices has apparently caught many money managers off guard, leaving them struggling to keep up with broad-based market indexes and setting the stage for another round of explanations why a simple buy-and-hold strategy once again outsmarted so many experts. A Wall Street Journal article appearing last week focused on lagging results at Fidelity Magellan fund, but Fidelity deserves no special criticism; underperformance among major funds this year is pervasive. For the year-to-date period ending Friday, November 17, not one of the twenty-four actively managed US equity mutual funds listed among the industry's fifty largest funds by the Wall Street Journal has managed to outperform an appropriate benchmark such as the S&P 500® Index or the Russell 1000 Value Index.

PUMP 'HER'
11-20-2006, 04:39 PM
Many investment professionals have watched the rally in stock prices over the past few months with increasing discomfort, and last week's trading did nothing to relieve the anguish: the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record high every day last week and the S&P 500 Index closed above the 1,400 level for the first time in six years on Friday, November 17.

Thats a mouthful. Ashlyn walked in and said hey whatcha reading? So I started reading it to her and nearly passed out.

So are you saying were screwed or what G?

BADFISH II
11-20-2006, 05:15 PM
Thats a mouthful. Ashlyn walked in and said hey whatcha reading? So I started reading it to her and nearly passed out.

So are you saying were screwed or what G?

No - the moral to the story is active managers don't statistically beat their peer benchmarks on a consistant basis. The ones that do - well I could spend hours telling you about how and why it happens (statistical luck, innapropriate benchmarks, excellent lucky performance one year then turning the fund into an index so that one year of performance carries over for several years etc.) - but I won't bore you with that stuff :eek3:

HavasuHome
11-20-2006, 06:21 PM
Keep them coming. :thumb:

Red Horse
11-20-2006, 07:17 PM
I have always thought active trading was just for day traders. IPO then sell. Real short term stuff.

Buy and hold is where it is at. I am sure some push it to get some extra $$ in their commisions. You have got to ride the wave.

I have my TSP (Thift Savings Plan) in the S and C funds. They are indexed against the DJW 4500 and the S&P 500 respectively. They go up and down all the time. I just let it ride. It is free to move stuff around via the internet (there are 6 total). They have everything from GOV securities to "Lifecycle' funds where they are adjusted due to your age and time to retirement. I have outdone all of them by just leaving alone. Case in point the C fund share price was $17.64 on the 10th of Oct. It grew to 18.22 then fell to 17.82. Lots bailed out and shifted. I stay they same and nowit is at 18.66. I say let it ride. Hell rollercoasters are fun.

PUMP 'HER'
11-20-2006, 08:57 PM
I have always thought active trading was just for day traders. IPO then sell. Real short term stuff.

Buy and hold is where it is at. I am sure some push it to get some extra $$ in their commisions. You have got to ride the wave.

I have my TSP (Thift Savings Plan) in the S and C funds. They are indexed against the DJW 4500 and the S&P 500 respectively. They go up and down all the time. I just let it ride. It is free to move stuff around via the internet (there are 6 total). They have everything from GOV securities to "Lifecycle' funds where they are adjusted due to your age and time to retirement. I have outdone all of them by just leaving alone. Case in point the C fund share price was $17.64 on the 10th of Oct. It grew to 18.22 then fell to 17.82. Lots bailed out and shifted. I stay they same and nowit is at 18.66. I say let it ride. Hell rollercoasters are fun.

This had to be Nicole posting, all the way up to the rollercoaster part.:D

Red Horse
11-20-2006, 09:06 PM
Nope, it is ME

PUMP 'HER'
11-20-2006, 09:31 PM
Drinkin' again huh? :beerchug: :thumb:

Red Horse
11-20-2006, 10:08 PM
Nope, I am at work:D